Rising Opposition Movement Looks to Political Renewal, Stemming Erosion of Democracy in Hungary

By Catherine Wilson
BUDAPEST, Jan 27 2025 – The Central European nation of Hungary is officially a democracy. But civil society, the media and democratic norms have increasingly come under threat as the Fidesz-KDNP coalition government, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has entrenched autocratic rule over the past 14 years. Now a new wave of energy and popularity is driving the younger opposition movement into the spotlight ahead of next year’s parliamentary election.

“I believe that no matter how much Fidesz has dismantled the important pillars of democracy and the rule of law and cemented its own reliable cadres in two-thirds of the votes, despite spending hundreds of billions annually on propaganda, it can still be defeated in elections,” 43-year-old Péter Magyar, leader of the Tisza (Respect and Freedom) Party in Hungary, said in a public statement. “Our country says enough is enough.”

Since winning the 2010 national election, the nationalist conservative Fidesz Party has introduced state and legislative measures that have eroded the independence of the judiciary and restricted and censored the media, while there has been greater surveillance and undermining of non-government organizations working on social issues and human rights in the country.

“Hungary is no longer a democracy, not just according to me, not just according to the opposition, but according to independent institutions. And, to be frank, according to most of the voters,” Ferenc Gelencsér, the 34-year-old member of the Hungarian Parliament for the centrist Momentum Movement Party, told IPS in Budapest.

Hungary transitioned to democracy after the end of Communist rule in 1991. Orbán, who was first elected Prime Minister from 1998 to 2002, was a vocal advocate for greater freedom, closer ties with western Europe and supported Hungary joining NATO in 1999. But, after re-election in 2010, his coalition government, which has a two-thirds majority in parliament, has moved toward a model of governance termed ‘illiberal democracy.’

Rising food prices and a struggling economy have contributed to cost of living pressures in Hungary. Credit: Catherine Wilson/IPS

It routinely changes electoral laws and constituency boundaries to its advantage and ensures the country’s major courts, institutions and media are dominated by pro-government figures.

“The rules and regulations that govern the economy, that govern political processes—everything changes depending on what is the current interest of the government party. And there is constant adjustment in a way that constitutional rules don’t really exist anymore in reality, only on paper,” Professor Zsolt Enyedi at the Democracy Institute, Central European University, in Budapest, told IPS. “It is a very uneven playing field… distorted by the fact that the financial resources of the government and pro-government media outnumber the resources of the opposition in a ratio of about 10 to 1.”

They are major factors in Fidesz’s success in the last four consecutive elections. As well, Orbán “speaks the language of average Hungarians” and “alters his rhetoric to changes in the public mood,” Enyedi added. The ruling coalition secured 54.13 percent of votes in the 2022 election, but observers deemed it severely flawed due to media bias and misuse of state resources.

Its right-wing rhetoric has also targeted supporters of human rights and voices critical of its regime. In 2021, civil society organizations, including the Hungarian Civil Liberties Union and Amnesty International, reported to the United Nations that those supporting refugees and vulnerable groups were being vilified by the government, there were frequent denials of freedom of information requests and human rights education programs were being removed from schools.

And while the constitution provides for freedom of expression, “ongoing efforts to sideline voices and perspectives that authorities find unfavourable, including many found at academic institutions, NGOs and media outlets, have discouraged open criticism of the government,” reports Freedom House, which rates Hungary as “partly free” with a score of 65 out of 100.

But Gelencsér says he speaks for the younger generation who want a different future. About 15 percent of Hungary’s population of 9.7 million people are aged 16-29 years and a study of youth published this year by the Foundation for European Progressive Studies reports that two-thirds want to live in a full democracy.

“The core voters of the Momentum [party] are under the age of 49 years and the main two things that matter to these people are democracy, rule of law and the fear of climate change. Most of our voters are looking for an alternative to the government and most of them are youngsters,” Gelencsér said. In another 2021 survey, 51 percent of young Hungarians believed their interests were not represented in national politics, a minority of one in five thought that elections were free and fair and only 19 percent trusted publicly available information.

There is also rising disillusion with the stagnant economy, corruption and poor public services. Hungary’s GDP growth declined from 7.1 percent in 2021 to -0.9 percent last year. And about three quarters of the population earn incomes below the level needed to meet the average cost of living, reports the Hungarian think tank, Equilibrium Institute.

“The atmosphere has changed. There is a general dissatisfaction with the government. In the last couple of years, especially after COVID, the economy is doing rather badly. And there is a general lack of trust in the government to manage these issues,” Enyedi said.

Ferenc Gelencser (Centre), Member of Parliament for the Momentum Movement Party, with MP Akos Hadhazy (Left) and MP Hajnal Miklos (Right), participate in a protest in Budapest in 2023, Hungary. Credit: Momentum Movement

Gelencsér added that “housing is a huge issue for the younger generation; everybody is renting, and our healthcare system and pension system are on the verge of collapse. It would be understandable if we didn’t pay any tax, but there are many different types of tax in this country, and I don’t know where it is going.”

Nepotism is prevalent in government circles and Hungary was ranked the most corrupt nation in the European Union (EU) last year by Transparency International with a score of 42 out of 100.

Increasingly, young people are voting with their feet and the number of citizens emigrating, mostly to western Europe, rose from 19,322 in 2020 to 35,736 in 2023.

But, in the last year, opposition voices have been emboldened by problems facing the government. A major scandal erupted in February 2024 when the government pardoned a man sentenced for obstructing justice in a child abuse case. In January this year, the EU cancelled 1 billion euros in funding to Hungary, which has rising state debt, due to its failure to address corruption and breach of democratic norms. And Antal Rogan, a government official, was subject to sanctions by the United States for his role in state corruption.

The Second Reform Era, a centrist party established in 2023, responded to the news. And on a late January afternoon, with the temperature close to zero, a crowd of several hundred supporters gathered on the bank of the Danube River in Budapest. Muffled in puffa jackets and woollen beanies, some holding flame-lit beacons, they came to hear party leaders call out the scourge of corruption and support for the sanctions.

But the resurgence of the Tisza Party since early last year under the new leadership of Magyar, an energetic and media-savvy lawyer and former member of the government, is galvanising a public shift. After last year’s pardon scandal, he stood to demand a new direction for the country based on transparent governance and rule of law while advocating for people’s grievances, including the neglected rural electorate. In an IDEA Institute public poll this month, Tisza led with public support of 33 percent, compared to 26 percent for the government.

‘We will give back to the country what has been taken away from it: decency, self-respect, justice and hope for a better life,’ Magyar said in a New Year’s message.

The ruling coalition will not miss any tactics to dominate the next parliamentary election in 2026. But, to date, the momentum of Tisza’s rise appears unstoppable.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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